1. Temperatures have been cooling since 2002, even as carbon dioxide has continued to
rise.
2. Carbon dioxide is a trace gas and by itself will produce little warming. Also, as CO2
increases, the incremental warming is less, as the effect is logarithmic so the more CO2,
the less warming it produces.
3. CO2 has been totally uncorrelated with temperature over the last decade, and
significantly negative since 2002.
4. CO2 is not a pollutant, but a naturally occurring gas. Together with chlorophyll and
sunlight, it is an essential ingredient in photosynthesis and is, accordingly, plant food.
5. Reconstruction of paleoclimatological CO2 concentrations demonstrates that carbon
dioxide concentration today is near its lowest level since the Cambrian Era some 550
million years ago, when there was almost 20 times as much CO2 in the atmosphere as
there is today without causing a “runaway greenhouse effect.”
6. Temperature changes lead, not lag, CO2 changes on all time scales. The oceans may play
a key role, emitting carbon dioxide when they warm as carbonated beverages lose fizz as
they warm and absorbing it as they cool.
7. Most of the warming in the climate models comes from the assumption that water vapor
and precipitation increase as temperatures warm, a strong positive feedback. Water
vapor is a far more important greenhouse gas than CO2. However, that assumption has
been shown in observations and peer reviewed research to be wrong, and in fact water
vapor and precipitation act as a negative feedback that reduces any small greenhouse
warming from carbon dioxide.
8. Indeed, greenhouse models show the warming should be greatest at mid to high
atmosphere levels in the tropics. But balloon and satellite observations show cooling
there. The greenhouse signature or DNA does not match reality, and the greenhouse
models thus must greatly overstate the warming – and in a court of law would have to
be acquitted of any role in global warming
9. The sun has both direct and indirect effects on our climate. Solar activity changes on
cycles of 11 years and longer. When the sun is more active it is brighter and a little hotter.
More important though are the indirect effects. Ultraviolet radiation increases much
more than the brightness and causes increased ozone production, which generates heat
in the high atmosphere that works its way down, affecting the weather. Also, an active
sun diffuses cosmic rays, which play an important role in nucleation of low clouds,
resulting in fewer clouds. In all these ways the sun warms the planet more when it is
active. An active sun in the 1930s and again near the end of the last century helped
produce the observed warming periods. The current solar cycle is the longest in over 100
years, an unmistakable sign of a cooling sun that historical patterns suggest will stay so
for decades.
10. The multidecadal cycles in the ocean correlate extremely well with the solar cycles and
global temperatures. These are 60 to 70 year cycles that relate to natural variations in
the large-scale circulations. Warm oceans correlate with warm global temperatures. The
Pacific started cooling in the late 1990s and it accelerated in the last year, and the
Atlantic has cooled from its peak in 2004. This supports the observed global land
temperature cooling, which is strongly correlated with ocean heat content. Newly
deployed N.O.A.A. buoys confirm global ocean cooling.
11. Warmer ocean cycles are periods with diminished Arctic ice cover. When the oceans
were warm in the 1930s to the 1950s, Arctic ice diminished and Greenland warmed. The
recent ocean warming, especially in the 1980s to the early 2000s, is similar to what took
place 70 years ago and the Arctic ice has reacted much the same way, with diminished
summer ice extent.
12. Antarctic ice has been increasing and the extent last year was the greatest in the satellite
monitoring era. We are running ahead of last year’s record pace.
Joseph D’Aleo was the first Director of Meteorology at the cable TV Weather Channel. He has over 30 years experience in professional meteorology. Mr. D’Aleo was Chief Meteorologist at Weather Services International Corporation and Senior Editor of ŇDr. DewpointÓ for WSI’s popular Intellicast.com web site. He is a former college professor of Meteorology at Lyndon State College. He has authored and presented a number of papers as well as published a book focused on advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made skillful seasonal forecasts possible. Mr. D’Aleo has also authored many articles and made numerous presentations on the roles cycles in the sun and oceans have played in climate change.
Mr. D’Aleo is a Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He has served as a member and then chairman of the American Meteorological Society’ Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, and has co-chaired national conferences for both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association. Mr. D’Aleo was elected a Councilor for the AMS.
Joseph D’Aleo is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin BS, MS and was in the doctoral program at NYU.
Mr. D’Aleo’s areas of expertise include climatology, natural factors involved in climate change, weather and climate prediction, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
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