WEBCommentary Editor

Author: Bob Webster
Date:  October 20, 2016

Topic category:  Elections - Politics, Polling, etc.

Why FOX News Poll is Biased Toward Hillary Clinton
Flawed methodology produces flawed results bolstering myth that Clinton leads Trump

The FOX News poll methodology is so obviously flawed that its value as a true indicator of the election outcome is highly suspect. Perhaps the real reason these Clinton-skewed polls are being hyped so much is to lay a foundation for sufficient vote fraud to legitimize fraudulent results by virtue of their consistency with seriously flawed pre-election polling.

On more than one occasion, I've been left wondering why the periodic FOX News Poll is so dramatically inconsistent with daily tracking polls whose methodologies are rigorous and which have demonstrated a high degree of success with past elections. I decided to see what I could learn about the FOX News Poll and discovered the FOX News poll methodology online (H/T Google).

Analyzing the FOX News poll methodology, I discovered several highly questionable practices that seriously question whether the poll has any validity at all. These discoveries may explain the poll's inconsistency with well-established superior polling methodologies (LA Times/USC and Rasmussen).

Let's examine some of the more apparent problems with the FOX News Poll.

Quotations below are from the FOX News poll methodology page.

Concerning a critical requirement (weighting) for obtaining an unbiased result, this is what FOX News polling has to say:

"When necessary, minor weights are used to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the national registered voter population (as measured by the national exit poll). Generally, weights are only applied to age and race variables. The Fox News Poll is not weighted by political party."

A proper polling process should capture key demographics of sampled registered voters (age, gender, ethnicity, education, income, party affiliation). Polling should strive to achieve a proportionate balance in party affiliation for the area being polled. For example, polling in Iowa should reflect Iowa's balance of registered voters by party affiliation. Other demographics of respondants can be accumulated as separate demographic information, but the basic polling result for any geographic region (e.g., State) should mirror that region's party affiliation as determined from voter registration data.

It's easy to see why the FOX News poll is out of sync with more robust polling with its underestimation of Trump's support and overestimation of Clinton's support among the electorate.

Evidence that indicts the FOX News poll and similar casual periodic polls include the much more rigorous polling of the LA Times/USC and Rasmussen daily tracking polls that have consistently shown Trump leading Clinton.

In the LA Times/USC poll, each day is an average of the prior week's polling. This tends to smooth out errors that come from sensationalist news dumps and salacious accusations that tend to spike the more casual periodic polls (FOX News, Washington Post, New York Times, etc.). These additional facts emerge from the LA Times/USC poll:

Weighted average of LA Times/USC daily tracking poll since July 10

Note that at no time throughout the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll, has HIllary Clinton's weighted average matched or exceeded Trump's for any date.

These findings from the LA Times/USC daily poll contradict the casual periodic biased polling by "news" organizations that routinely oversample Democrats to achieve a desired result that is designed to create a false illusion of Clinton's "strength" that flies in the face of strong indicators of significant entrenched support for Trump and an entrenched weakness of Clinton.

Compare these findings with the flawed FOX News polling and one has to wonder just what FOX News is trying to accomplish with its polling?

FOX News needs to take a hard look at how it conducts its polling. A search for a better polling methodology (or polling agency) might be in order if FOX News wants to retain any credibility for its polling.

Bob Webster
WEBCommentary (Editor, Publisher)

Notes:  Referernces:

  1. FOX News methodology statement
  2. Landline Phones Are a Dying Breed
  3. Cellphone-only Households Most Common Among the Young, Poor
  4. Census Bureau gender data, 2015

Biography - Bob Webster

Bob Webster, a 12th-generation descendent of both the Darte family (Connecticut, 1630s) and the Webster family (Massachusetts, 1630s) is a descendant of Daniel Webster's father, Revolutionary War patriot Ebenezer Webster, who served with General Washington. Bob has always had a strong interest in early American history, our Constitution, U.S. politics, and law. Politically he is a constitutional republican with objectivist and libertarian roots. He has faith in the ultimate triumph of truth and reason over deception and emotion. He is a strong believer in our Constitution as written and views the abandonment of constitutional restraint by the regressive Progressive movement as a great danger to our Republic. His favorite novel is Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand and believes it should be required reading for all high school students so they can appreciate the cost of tolerating the growth of unconstitutional crushingly powerful central government. He strongly believes, as our Constitution enshrines, that the interests of the individual should be held superior to the interests of the state.

A lifelong interest in meteorology and climatology spurred his strong interest in science. Bob earned his degree in Mathematics at Virginia Tech, graduating in 1964.

Copyright 2016 by Bob Webster
All Rights Reserved.

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